Redistricting Deep Dive w/ Stephen Caruso (Part 1)

Join host Jesse White and guest Stephen Caruso of the Pennsylvania Capital-Star as they take a deep dive into the legislative redistricting process, specifically the proposed Pennsylvania State House and Senate maps.

Part 1 focuses on the transparency of this redistricting process as compared to previous years, the likelihood of litigation based on a host of factors, and what state government could look like if these preliminary maps become law.

Check out the maps for yourself, courtesy of Dave's Redistricting App:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::5db459af-cfbf-42d0-839e-30230a97f34e

Learn more about the Keystone Reckoning Project at www.keystonereckoning.com

Visit www.truebluegear.com for all of your progressive political t-shirts and gear. Use the code "KEYSTONE" at checkout for a 20% discount for Keystone Reckoning Podcast listeners!

Transcript

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[jesse]: Hi, and welcome to another episode of the Keystone Recording

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[jesse]: podcast. I'm your host. Jesse and I have a special guess with me today, Stephen

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[stephen_caruso]: Keytonsek,

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[jesse]: Carusso of the Penn Capital Star, Thank you so much for taking the time to join us.

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[stephen_caruso]: nice have me, Jesse.

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[jesse]: So before you jump into

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[stephen_caruso]: So

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[jesse]: it I, I forcause. we have liors all over the state. Tell.

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[stephen_caruso]: the state tellk yous,

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[jesse]: I'm I'm going to ask you to give a little plumg for your sight, Uh that that you work

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[jesse]: for and what you do, because I, I think it's a really, uh, a really good repository

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[jesse]: and a good source for a good capital level reporting that we don't see in a lot of a

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[jesse]: lot of different you know areas of the state So won't you tell us a littlet about

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[jesse]: capital store?

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[stephen_caruso]: Yeah, so uh, yeah, I work for the Pennsylvania Capital Star, Uh, or part of

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[stephen_caruso]: the state's newsroom network. Where so we're about? I think we're about half

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[stephen_caruso]: the states. Uh, it's a non profit that just sort of poops four reporters

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[stephen_caruso]: down in state capitals and tells them to do their worst. Um, you know, so

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[stephen_caruso]: we've been around since twenty nineteen. Um. it's myself, editor, John Basci

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[stephen_caruso]: Casseer and my coworker Marley Parish, Um, and we are, really, as you said,

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[stephen_caruso]: really focused on the State House. Uh, specifically, so like know, do

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[stephen_caruso]: national coverage? Sometimes we keep an eye on what, Uh, Bob, K C pattb or

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[stephen_caruso]: up to, But like I, you know, my job is, I'm a housepeeat writer. I spend

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[stephen_caruso]: most of my time focusing on just the Pennsylvania house. Uh, you know your

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[stephen_caruso]: local state reps. Uh, you know, talking about Ban cow carry, betting off,

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[stephen_caruso]: Uh, Joanna Mc Clinton, Those folks, so you know, I think, Uh, I think we

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[stephen_caruso]: compete with the best of them. I think you know I, I would. I would put our

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[stephen_caruso]: work up against, you know a lot of the outlets that cover Harsburg on a Da

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[stephen_caruso]: day basis, and uh, you know I, I do appreciate the kind words. thoughcause.

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[stephen_caruso]: it's always nice to hear from someone else.

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[jesse]: Uh, No, absolutely, Because it, and and I look at it from two sides. One is from

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[jesse]: someone who served in the State House, and you know we had to always be very cautious

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[jesse]: about what media outlet you were talking to Right Are they going to give us a fair

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[jesse]: shake or

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[stephen_caruso]: Us.

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[jesse]: not? And you know older members of the caucis would just be like, Don't talk to

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[jesse]: report S their snakes. and you know A, but invariably you would it. You know it would

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[jesse]: happen that you would easily get bitten by somebody you know, because Y, you're

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[jesse]: dealing with editorial boards and agendas and things like that. So to have this non

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[jesse]: profit, that's kind of just calling balls and strikes fairly is a is a really. uh, A.

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[jesse]: I don't think people realize how beneficial it is to have Um, and also to you know

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[jesse]: now with someone who's on the outside. You know there's so much that happens kind of

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[jesse]: not behind the scenes. but you know under the dome that you know in terms of process

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[jesse]: and things like that, that is so critical to understanding what's going on and it

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[jesse]: could just get lost if there's not anybody there to report on it. So Um, it's really

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[jesse]: important, work it. it really is,

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[stephen_caruso]: Well that thank you. Yeah, I, uh. I.

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[stephen_caruso]: I cover

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[stephen_caruso]: I my pitch every time I've donew

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[stephen_caruso]: form of government

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[jesse]: Mhm,

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[stephen_caruso]: and the least cover form

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[jesse]: Mhm, Mhm,

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[stephen_caruso]: of

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[stephen_caruso]: things, and I, I'm very happy to do it

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[jesse]: absolutely, absolutely, so

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[stephen_caruso]: absolutely

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[jesse]: let's talk maps. So

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[stephen_caruso]: please.

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[jesse]: so yeah, because I'm sure this isn't anything you've talked about recently. Very

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[jesse]: much.

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[stephen_caruso]: Oh, it's just I've literally been having dreams about maps. I am emarrassed

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[stephen_caruso]: to admit it, but I have literally had state House maps, ands

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[stephen_caruso]: brain. I don't know if

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[stephen_caruso]: or what.

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[jesse]: Uh, yeah, I think it, or,

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[stephen_caruso]: Yeah,

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[jesse]: or an institutionalize one or the other. So okay, so e? I want to hit this from a

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[jesse]: couple of different angles. The first way I want to hit it is from a process angle.

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[jesse]: So uh, for those who aren't you know the the kind of the laid person out there that

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[jesse]: doesn't really understand how redistricting works. Uh, you know it's there're two

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[jesse]: different kinds of redistring. The congressional maps are drawn by the State House

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[jesse]: and signed by the

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[stephen_caruso]: Umhum,

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[jesse]: governor. That's you know. That's some real sausage making right there. and then the

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[jesse]: Uh. the the State House of State set a maps are done by this independentdistrict

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[stephen_caruso]: the uh, The the state houses, they senmasterd donee by this independent

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[jesse]: commission, which is you know, a member of each of the four caucasses plus this

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[stephen_caruso]: redistruted commission, which is you know, a member of each of the war

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[stephen_caruso]: caucses plus this independent Shiift person. Mhm, So want about talk to be

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[jesse]: independent fifth person. So I want to talk about. Talk to be about the this fifth

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[stephen_caruso]: about the this fifth person And and kind of how you think they uh, influence

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[jesse]: person and kind of how you think they influence the process, and and what your

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[stephen_caruso]: the process, and and what your impression were? Yeah, So the the fifth

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[jesse]: impressions were.

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[stephen_caruso]: person's Mark Nornberg, you, your Western Pennsylvania listeners, or any

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[stephen_caruso]: pitalumms like I, uh, you know, you might reconize

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[jesse]: Mhm,

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[stephen_caruso]: them. He's the former chancellor of good old Nordy, Um, and he was picked by

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[stephen_caruso]: the State Supreme Court because those four caucus leaders can come to an

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[stephen_caruso]: agreement. What one thing? one part of the description I will just push back

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[stephen_caruso]: out is? Uh, you said. you know it as an independent commission and it kind

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[stephen_caruso]: of is, but you know as you said like the membership is legislative leaders.

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[stephen_caruso]: So a lot of times like there is sausage making

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[jesse]: Mhm, Mhm,

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[stephen_caruso]: in it. It's just like it's not as uh. I. I don't know. It's like it's a bit

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[stephen_caruso]: different 'cause instead of those me, those leaders having to go and get the

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[stephen_caruso]: votes of their members on a four vote. like the Congressional bill, they can

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[stephen_caruso]: just go behind closed doors and negotiate a map, So that's kind of what

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[stephen_caruso]: happened this time Is like. Mark Nordenberg laid this all out in the meeting

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[stephen_caruso]: where they approved the Uh, the maps, which is like an insane amount of

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[stephen_caruso]: detail that I, which more people did when describing the legislative

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[stephen_caruso]: process,

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[jesse]: it was. It was impressive. Yeah,

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[stephen_caruso]: Like Nornbrg. it was expressive. Yeah, yeah, like Nordenburg, of what

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[stephen_caruso]: Nordenberg's role is supposed to be like what the chairmanist missish is

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[stephen_caruso]: supposed to do. It's like the way it's been described is like tech. like

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[stephen_caruso]: sort of. they call balls and strikes. I think Nordenberg pushed back on that

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[stephen_caruso]: in the meeting. But like the ideal of this commission, at least in previous

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[stephen_caruso]: processes is like the the caucus reader is just meet. Hash out their maps.

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[stephen_caruso]: They like, kind of draw where it's not competitive at all. Because like,

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[stephen_caruso]: what does a democrat care how Tiyoga county looks like. What does a

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[jesse]: right,

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[stephen_caruso]: republican care how like you know warbs in Philadelphia look like on a state

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[stephen_caruso]: housee level, and then when they have to have a competitive district when

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[stephen_caruso]: they have lines that will influence who wins who loses. They, then you know,

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[stephen_caruso]: fight amongst each other. See if they can work out a compromise and if they

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[stephen_caruso]: can't, they go to the chairman and the chairman will sort of just like, make

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[stephen_caruso]: a dis a call, Um. And that is what Nornberg is supposed to to be doing,

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[stephen_caruso]: Nordenburg, though I kind of came into the process like I wouldn't say,

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[stephen_caruso]: promising to be more active. but he seemed to come into it like we sometimes

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[stephen_caruso]: had just retired judges. Uh, we've

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[jesse]: Mhm, Mhm,

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[stephen_caruso]: had like we've had people who are linked to the political process come in

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[stephen_caruso]: like. Let, the last time it was a retired judge of

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[stephen_caruso]: Delaware County. Uh, this time as as a Cic member, it was a disaster and

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[jesse]: and it was a as a sitting member. It was a disaster with that guy.

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[stephen_caruso]: that is what is a lot of people have described that know, it's particularly

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[stephen_caruso]: advocates.

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[jesse]: Yeah,

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[stephen_caruso]: you know. I'm sure Republicans. Uh, looking at their responses to this Fap

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[stephen_caruso]: anyway, Look the ba. They, they could be said, is uh, you know, and

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[stephen_caruso]: Nordenberg, though came in like, I think clear with this idea that I want. I

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[stephen_caruso]: want. I' taken this seriously. I wa to draw fair maps. I want to improve

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[stephen_caruso]: these maps that have been decried for, for you know, at least the last

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[jesse]: Mhm, Mhm,

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[stephen_caruso]: decade. Uh, and the maps say you know, like Guess you're a you' a Forber

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[stephen_caruso]: stad member. You know like because this map. the map making's always been a

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[stephen_caruso]: political process. I mean you know. Uh, it's pretty easy. There's a lot of

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[stephen_caruso]: types of Gerry mandering that've been baked into these maps. We're talking

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[stephen_caruso]: partisan, Jerry Manndering, racial, Jerry manndering, Uh, incumbent

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[stephen_caruso]: protection, Jerry Mandering and screw for members of the caucus. I don't

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[stephen_caruso]: like Jerry

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[jesse]: Yes,

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[stephen_caruso]: Mandarin like there's There's all of these have been done. and once you once

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[stephen_caruso]: those maps are altered for those reasons, those changes kind of stay Because

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[stephen_caruso]: people get elected to those districts and then you have to like you have

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[stephen_caruso]: somebody in that district And it becomes hard to change the district Because

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[stephen_caruso]: then people get mad, which we' get to

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[jesse]: Mhm,

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[stephen_caruso]: in a moment, but I, I'm wor. This is a very long answer, but just say like

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[stephen_caruso]: Nordburg came in with all this in his mind, and I think that's shown in the

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[stephen_caruso]: final product. because Um, as he described it like, sort of I. I, in the

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[stephen_caruso]: senate, we saw this like the classic sort of map making as I described it,

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[stephen_caruso]: where Northrnburg is kind of sitting there, taking suggestions from the

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[stephen_caruso]: caucus leaders making making a call when he has to or not, but mostly that

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[stephen_caruso]: was a negotiated product. according to Nordenberg, That was Jay Costta and

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[stephen_caruso]: Kimboard sitting down the senate. A democratic and republican leader, and

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[stephen_caruso]: just saying map', comfortable with. there's very. The only person who was

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[stephen_caruso]: really screwed by that map is Uh. John Udchck. who was an independent. Uh.

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[jesse]: who's done? who's done a fair share of screwing in the chamber himself with a party.

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[stephen_caruso]: He's not a fi year of screwing these A

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[jesse]: So

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[jesse]: yeah,

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[stephen_caruso]: Yeah, And and also the and and and senator ▁j. Corman, who is president of

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[stephen_caruso]: the chamber, But I said he's running for set, uh

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[jesse]: Mhm,

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[stephen_caruso]: for governor, So like the only people who are really like who are completely

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[stephen_caruso]: drawn out of their district, forced into a really tough circumst. There

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[stephen_caruso]: might be another exception up. The main point is like the very few people

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[stephen_caruso]: are like, I think severely harmed

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[jesse]: right,

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[stephen_caruso]: by that map at the caucus. Now the House map, Um. according in Ordenburg,

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[stephen_caruso]: Uh, Joanna M. Clinton Democratic leader, Carerry Benn Ha, for Publicu

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[stephen_caruso]: leader, just did not meet Um. Carery said after the meeting that like they

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[stephen_caruso]: had one scheduled meeting, then he had coved. I remember that diagnosis and

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[stephen_caruso]: then he. that meeting got cancelled and he was never over thely schedule. So

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[stephen_caruso]: basically A according, they just did not meet the talk about the maps to do

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[stephen_caruso]: that horse trade, but the Senate did the try and be like. Well, what if we

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[stephen_caruso]: shore up this guy affect that guy and do the other

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[jesse]: Mhm,

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[stephen_caruso]: thing? So Nordenberg said that, like he tried to like, he kind of had to

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[stephen_caruso]: make a map by taking ideas from both sides, And then he had his own mapper,

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[stephen_caruso]: Uh names Jonathan Service, he was a c, m, u. uh, I believe graduate studies,

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[stephen_caruso]: Uh, And he's done this mapping before that. It's it called a special master,

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[stephen_caruso]: so A, and they had to develop this product, And when you look at the House

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[stephen_caruso]: map, that's where he sort of you see like that's where a lot of the

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[stephen_caruso]: controversy is Because that House map that Nordenberg put out there,

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[stephen_caruso]: Uh, really like upsets the Alple card. Uh, there are going to be fourteen

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[stephen_caruso]: Republican incumbents that to face each other, or as a twelve Republican

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[stephen_caruso]: incumbents have to face each other. Uh in twenty twenty two and the primary,

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[stephen_caruso]: this map is implemented and it was just a preliminary vote. So this is to

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[stephen_caruso]: say, Like you know, I, I, and Republicans of Cooke now tried to call

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[stephen_caruso]: Norenberg biased. I think that, Uh, a lot of Uh, there's there's a. There's

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[stephen_caruso]: a lot to go through with these maps. I think Notrbur had a good reputation

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[stephen_caruso]: coming in. No one raised.

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[stephen_caruso]: You can find a mix like Aan.

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[stephen_caruso]: There hes donated to Joedon, He donated Dick Thornberg. He worked on

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[stephen_caruso]: transition team for Tom Corrbet and Tom Wolf. He just sort of I. I. You

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[stephen_caruso]: know, Way he described himself was I am a open minded non partan who work

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[stephen_caruso]: with both parties over the years,

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[stephen_caruso]: Bening,

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[jesse]: right

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[stephen_caruso]: and that was what people basically, until this map came out had kind ofribed

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[stephen_caruso]: him. We starting to see some push back there', a Fox News art that highlight

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[stephen_caruso]: these donations that he

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[stephen_caruso]: uh. and and you know I. I, you know I as someone who cover the whole process

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[stephen_caruso]: when you get into the details in the map. I, you know, I think it's just

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[stephen_caruso]: going to depend on how you look at and what you value.

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[stephen_caruso]: How take the map is. I hope that's the question,

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[jesse]: it. No, it. it really does. And uh, you know, the the thing is in comparing this to

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[jesse]: the process for ten years ago, you know, when you talk about the different kinds of

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[jesse]: jeerry mandering you, you really did kind of hit the entire checklst. And you know I,

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[jesse]: I was I. And the one thing that you know I want, Uh, the people listening to this to

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[jesse]: understand is that Yeah, it is done by legislative leaders, but rankedfle members by

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[jesse]: and large are pretty much kept in the dark. you know we, we

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[stephen_caruso]: Umhu,

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[jesse]: have a few, know. there' be a few things. And this is I, also from talking to current

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[jesse]: members. You know the same kind of thing. Um, I know, Matt Bradford, the House

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[jesse]: approach chair was kind of the point man for the caucus on the House dam side, And

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[jesse]: you know, so everybody is, you know, sitting in their office doing danger districting

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[jesse]: up, trying to come up with their, you know, the the versions that work the best, and

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[jesse]: you know, doing a little horse trading with their neighbors. Well, if I did this and

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[jesse]: you did that, you know, because what people don't realize is this is. you know. this

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[jesse]: is basically like a big blanket. You know you pull on one thread. It. It impacts

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[jesse]: threads all over the place. You can't just start. You know, you know, there's very

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[jesse]: little room for deviation

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[jesse]: So you know what

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[stephen_caruso]: So

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[jesse]: happens is the the ranked follow lawmakers buy larger, just as in the dark as

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[jesse]: everybody else. I mean, I was sitting in my office when my

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[stephen_caruso]: in my

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[jesse]: Ts. Ey got on the rosterbd. Said that, Uh, a district of Washington County was being

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[stephen_caruso]: wasliated

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[jesse]: eliminated and I was like, Oh my God, that's me like. It took me like a couple of

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[jesse]: minutes. I was like, Oh damn, and like I like, ran up to the floor because you know

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[jesse]: it. But the thing was, and this is where I think The the difference between last

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[stephen_caruso]: difference,

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[jesse]: time and this time is you know. Last time the maps were determined to be so

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[jesse]: ridiculous that they were thrown out, we actually ran under the old maps for one more

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[jesse]: cycle, and then there were new maps. Do you foresee anything like that happening

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[jesse]: here?

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[stephen_caruso]: Um,

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[stephen_caruso]: you know, I think these maps are going to be

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[stephen_caruso]: lilitigated. These maps are going like, like Nordnberg has said that, Uh,

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[stephen_caruso]: lilitigated. These maps are going like, like Nordnberg has said that, Uh,

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[jesse]: Mhm,

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[stephen_caruso]: pretty much like he expects it. Um. and if they are a draft, they could

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[stephen_caruso]: pretty much like he expects it. Um. and if they are a draft, they could

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[stephen_caruso]: change more. I guess over comforly. like, In some ways, I almost hate to go

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[stephen_caruso]: change more. I guess over comforly. like, In some ways, I almost hate to go

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[stephen_caruso]: to specis of these maps because they. I. I. I. in my mind,

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[stephen_caruso]: to specis of these maps because they. I. I. I. in my mind,

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[stephen_caruso]: Uh, with the congressional maps with these maps, there is a high likelihood

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[stephen_caruso]: that what we're seeing right now may not be the final product and it could

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[stephen_caruso]: be small tweaks. It could be big

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[jesse]: Mhm,

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[stephen_caruso]: changes. Um,

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[stephen_caruso]: so like specifics, I almost find like

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[stephen_caruso]: I. I, I guess I'm like skeptical from my position of getting into. Uh, you

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[stephen_caruso]: know, I think that, Uh, So overall, you know

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[stephen_caruso]: I. I. I'm definitely happy too, and like I. I imagine I and Notrerberg seem

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[stephen_caruso]: confident that what they have done with these maps, which specifically tried

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[stephen_caruso]: to like increase minority

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[jesse]: Mhm,

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[stephen_caruso]: representation. Um, you know would hold up in court. Uh, that's kind of one

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[stephen_caruso]: of the I think guide stars of Like Win, nor made the choices they made was

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[stephen_caruso]: like he wanted to see increased repreent won more majority minority

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[jesse]: right,

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[stephen_caruso]: districts. Or it's called minority opportunity districts, which is where

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[stephen_caruso]: Basically it's like either

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[stephen_caruso]: one minority group does not make up a majority of. Like, Imagine a

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[stephen_caruso]: districto, that's like thirty percent black, thirty percent Latino. So no,

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[stephen_caruso]: no black voters and Latino voters don't make up a majority. But if they vote

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[stephen_caruso]: together, they over that there are more non white voters and there are white

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[jesse]: right right.

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[stephen_caruso]: voters. This is in like legal terms, kind of referred to as an opportunity

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[stephen_caruso]: district. Also, I've heard the terms referred to as like, uh, or that now

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[stephen_caruso]: would be a coalition district. Then there's also districts that like are

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[stephen_caruso]: maybe thirty seven to forty five percent minority. So they're still majority

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[stephen_caruso]: white. But like if it's a heavily democratic district, most of the

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[stephen_caruso]: democratic voters in that district are probably non white, So then in the

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[stephen_caruso]: primary they're probably able to pick their candidate and that candidate is

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[stephen_caruso]: most likely to win the general. Like I, I go into this, this is all

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[stephen_caruso]: complicated and these on the conversation of having them' trying to like

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[stephen_caruso]: turn into a story and the the coming days. But I, I, I only bring us all up

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[stephen_caruso]: because like understanding that and understanding

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[stephen_caruso]: that thought process from Nordenberg, I think is essential to understanding

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[stephen_caruso]: some of these map, stranger choices that are where well the controversy

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[stephen_caruso]: comes from, And I also think it's those very choices that I wonder if could

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[stephen_caruso]: it might be litigated.

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[jesse]: See, it sounded.

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[jesse]: You're right and it sounded to me like when he was giving his explanation it, it

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[stephen_caruso]: See it sound, you're right. It sounded to me like he was giving Ex Nation

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[jesse]: almost sounded to me like it was almost verbatum what you're going to hear

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[stephen_caruso]: it. It almost sounded to me like it was almost

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[stephen_caruso]: what you' going to hear in a legal argument right,

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[jesse]: in a legal argument right like, I mean, I think that knowing the history

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[jesse]: of how this went, and knowing that you know in our politics today were as litigious

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[stephen_caruso]: knowing the history of how this went, and knowing that you know, in our

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[stephen_caruso]: politics today, we' as litigious as ever, if not more. and knowing the

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[jesse]: as ever, if not more. And knowing the stakes involved, you know for the caucases, I

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[stephen_caruso]: stakes involved, you know, for the caucases, I think he went into this,

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[jesse]: think he went this, knowing that you know you're going to get legal challenges one

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[stephen_caruso]: knowing that you know you're going to get legal challenges. Yeah,

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[jesse]: way or another, it, it's the nature of the job, right,

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[stephen_caruso]: it's the nature of the.

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[stephen_caruso]: Yeah, I mean, look at. is uh, his chief of staff or chief council, a Bob

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[stephen_caruso]: buyer,

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[stephen_caruso]: robier, Um, he's a former republican. I believe Commonwealth Court

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[jesse]: Mhm,

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[jesse]: Yes,

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[stephen_caruso]: justice. Uh, you know like I feel like, uh ho, feel like I haven't

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[stephen_caruso]: emphasized that enough in some of my stories. Like I put aside from the

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[stephen_caruso]: party affiliation, Like having a former

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[stephen_caruso]: like Appeals court justice, who would have probably heard a lot of these

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[stephen_caruso]: arguments on your side. As you're trying to analyze this, I think is

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[stephen_caruso]: important in orderb. I mean Nordburg was the former. Where became Chancellor

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[stephen_caruso]: Pitt? He was the head of the Pittsburgh school.

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[jesse]: six,

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[stephen_caruso]: Uh, you know like he comes from A A. a scholarly legal background. I'd also

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[stephen_caruso]: like. I think about how Um. you know. Uh, You mentioned like, nor like what

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[stephen_caruso]: Nordenberg has been. like. One other public decision we had to see him make

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[stephen_caruso]: was on the A. A prison, Jerry mandnderaring, On where should uh prisoners?

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[stephen_caruso]: Uh, wish of people in prison. Count when drawing these maps, T, uh, they

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[stephen_caruso]: have traditionally been counted in their cells. Uh, if you are in prison you

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[stephen_caruso]: are. You are counted as existing for census purposes, redicering purposes

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[stephen_caruso]: where that jail is. So that what that does effectively move? I think the

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[stephen_caruso]: state prison population is something in the like forty thousand range. It

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[stephen_caruso]: goes up and downs definitelyly lower these these time these days. but like

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[stephen_caruso]: that effectively moves people. Um. Uh, this is like studies. This isn't

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[stephen_caruso]: talking from stereotype like it effectively moves a lot of representation

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[stephen_caruso]: from cities to the rural places where Uh prisons are built. Um, and on that

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[stephen_caruso]: so it became a a, a priority for liberal abverasy groups, Colonel Ts Asecuts

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[stephen_caruso]: and Joanna Clinton, Uh, She and she was on to this before she was a majority

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[stephen_caruso]: leader. A majorority leader, Um, that that there, should uh that that that

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[stephen_caruso]: should not happen. That reallocation of of prisoners should not happen. They

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[stephen_caruso]: should count. They should be counted where they are going to return, once

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[stephen_caruso]: their term ends, or once you know their time ends. And

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[stephen_caruso]: uh, that Nordenberg kind of wined that meeting, and he just kind of started

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[stephen_caruso]: talking about precedent and legality and A. And, and like a lot of people

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[stephen_caruso]: do, especially on weighty decisions, but like his was even more like

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[stephen_caruso]: exciting old precedent, and like all the case law and everything we can

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[stephen_caruso]: find, and you kind of concluded that, like, like I, His conclusion on why he

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[stephen_caruso]: ended up saying we're going to move prisoners back, uh to where they come

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[stephen_caruso]: from rather than Cam and Faye county in Somerset county, in Smoke county,

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[stephen_caruso]: was

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[stephen_caruso]: I, I cannot see any legal reason, why this like I cannot see, I, leegal

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[stephen_caruso]: reason we have to do either, and I think it. Is illgally defensible to do it

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[stephen_caruso]: and I think it sounds like the right decision and there is precedent from

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[stephen_caruso]: other states, so we should do it. Um. so yeah, like preced, I think is very

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[stephen_caruso]: big and have nonberg fixs

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[jesse]: right, eh, Everything about it just said to me like you know, Bring the challenges

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[jesse]: we. We feel comfortable that we're going to be able to beat them back in

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[stephen_caruso]: be

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[jesse]: a. Uh, you know, in a a reasonable

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[stephen_caruso]: in a reasonable way,

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[jesse]: way and you know one of the things that I think that a lot of people don't realize is

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[jesse]: is you? you kind of touched on It Are the the criteria by which

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[stephen_caruso]: which

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[jesse]: maps can be thrown out

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[stephen_caruso]: be

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[jesse]: right. And

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[stephen_caruso]: Mhmn against another incumbent

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[jesse]: so like you know, I, I'm an incumbent and I don't want to run against another

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[jesse]: incumbent. That's not really a reason

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[stephen_caruso]: reason,

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[jesse]: you know. it's it's you know. The, the ideas are to make sure that there is minority

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[jesse]: representation to make sure population deviations are are are respected, Um, you

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[stephen_caruso]: minor.

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[stephen_caruso]: yeahx, Well, some

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[jesse]: know, minimize, Uh. County municipal splits, those sorts of things you know, and I

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[jesse]: think from Th that point of view, I think these maps check most of the boxes, So

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[jesse]: Mhm,

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[stephen_caruso]: of them, I mean, I, I think there are some big concerns with the population

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[stephen_caruso]: deviation. It's quite high on these maps, is under the ten percent

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[stephen_caruso]: threshold, but not by a lot, so like that's something that I think. Uh, you

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[stephen_caruso]: know they might have to keep an eye on Um, that I would say A. and I am very

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[stephen_caruso]: interested by what. Like, Uh, the the one pre that I am very interested is

380
00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:00,119
[stephen_caruso]: like the

381
00:20:01,139 --> 00:20:03,859
[stephen_caruso]: Ps. Especially the House maps. I, when I talk to be talking a lot about the

382
00:20:03,859 --> 00:20:06,819
[stephen_caruso]: House maps this conversation had about the Senate, but the House to me is

383
00:20:05,460 --> 00:20:06,460
[jesse]: Mhm, right,

384
00:20:06,599 --> 00:20:07,599
[stephen_caruso]: like the most

385
00:20:07,379 --> 00:20:11,299
[stephen_caruso]: fascinating. Uh, and that's not just because of my beat, but like you know,

386
00:20:07,380 --> 00:20:08,380
[jesse]: Mhm,

387
00:20:11,539 --> 00:20:13,139
[stephen_caruso]: the city of Harrisburg is

388
00:20:12,820 --> 00:20:13,820
[jesse]: Yes,

389
00:20:13,299 --> 00:20:17,779
[stephen_caruso]: split, the city of Lancaster is split. Readding is was split twice and I

390
00:20:13,299 --> 00:20:17,779
[stephen_caruso]: split, the city of Lancaster is split. Readding is was split twice and I

391
00:20:17,859 --> 00:20:20,819
[stephen_caruso]: think it would have to be, but it's split three times under these maps. A

392
00:20:17,859 --> 00:20:20,819
[stephen_caruso]: think it would have to be, but it's split three times under these maps. A

393
00:20:20,979 --> 00:20:24,659
[stephen_caruso]: Scranton was split. I think fourway uh, I actually have not looked at Nepa

394
00:20:20,979 --> 00:20:24,659
[stephen_caruso]: Scranton was split. I think fourway uh, I actually have not looked at Nepa

395
00:20:24,899 --> 00:20:28,339
[stephen_caruso]: enough. Sorry, any Npa residents looking uh, listening to this, Um,

396
00:20:24,899 --> 00:20:28,339
[stephen_caruso]: enough. Sorry, any Npa residents looking uh, listening to this, Um,

397
00:20:28,999 --> 00:20:29,999
[stephen_caruso]: and

398
00:20:30,579 --> 00:20:34,099
[stephen_caruso]: overall, like those splits I, I, I am

399
00:20:36,099 --> 00:20:40,419
[stephen_caruso]: K. Nordenburg, I asked them specifically about them, and Nornberg said he

400
00:20:40,419 --> 00:20:42,979
[stephen_caruso]: thought they were justified specifically because most of those ▁quits are

401
00:20:43,059 --> 00:20:44,099
[stephen_caruso]: done to increase minority

402
00:20:44,180 --> 00:20:45,180
[jesse]: right,

403
00:20:44,259 --> 00:20:48,659
[stephen_caruso]: representation. I don't know of any like I don't, I. I asked one expert, Uh,

404
00:20:48,739 --> 00:20:52,659
[stephen_caruso]: who said he was not aware of any Pennsylvania specific, like Constitution,

405
00:20:53,059 --> 00:20:57,539
[stephen_caruso]: state statute, or like, even like federally mandated V, R. A protections in

406
00:20:57,619 --> 00:21:02,019
[stephen_caruso]: Pennsylvania that like need to be there. So like there's not a lot of case

407
00:21:02,259 --> 00:21:06,419
[stephen_caruso]: law on that, And like also like how those swits will comport with the Um.

408
00:21:06,819 --> 00:21:10,419
[stephen_caruso]: that you know, the two thousand eighteen Jerry Manndering, rolling. Um, I

409
00:21:10,579 --> 00:21:14,579
[stephen_caruso]: feel like I am not a lawyer, but from my conversations I do feel comfortable

410
00:21:14,659 --> 00:21:17,779
[stephen_caruso]: saying like I think these are all really open questions and A. And as you

411
00:21:17,859 --> 00:21:22,419
[stephen_caruso]: said, though, like i, Nordenburg seems very confident. So like I, but I

412
00:21:22,659 --> 00:21:25,779
[stephen_caruso]: think there could be questions coming from a lot of sides. definitely

413
00:21:26,179 --> 00:21:31,779
[stephen_caruso]: republicans. but I. I. I could see some democratic groups or liberal groups,

414
00:21:31,939 --> 00:21:35,299
[stephen_caruso]: or just like community groups that potentially might not like the way their

415
00:21:35,699 --> 00:21:39,139
[stephen_caruso]: town has been divided. Their municipalities' been dided. their communities

416
00:21:39,299 --> 00:21:42,979
[stephen_caruso]: been divided. Uh, because of these maps too, so I don't know it. It to me,

417
00:21:43,219 --> 00:21:44,739
[stephen_caruso]: seems like a huge open question.

418
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,400
[jesse]: absolutely. And so it was interesting

419
00:21:46,659 --> 00:21:51,379
[stephen_caruso]: Absolutely. And so it was interesting in here because we're talking about

420
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,800
[jesse]: because we're talking about the response to this like this was some like you know,

421
00:21:51,459 --> 00:21:54,899
[stephen_caruso]: the response to this like this was some like you know, clear, Democratic

422
00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:58,400
[jesse]: clear Democratic, Jery Mannder, and the way I've looked at it is, you know when

423
00:21:55,139 --> 00:21:59,939
[stephen_caruso]: gerryman, Mhm. The way I've looked at it is you know where you've got

424
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:03,280
[jesse]: you've got uh, uh, Yeah, the last couple of cycles where there was a clear Republican

425
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:04,800
[jesse]: Jerrymander. Uh,

426
00:22:04,879 --> 00:22:05,879
[stephen_caruso]: Umhum.

427
00:22:05,360 --> 00:22:08,000
[jesse]: you know, I, just because it's not

428
00:22:07,919 --> 00:22:08,919
[stephen_caruso]: Just be its.

429
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:13,520
[jesse]: what they want it to be, it's not what the Republicans want to be, Doesn it mean that

430
00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:17,760
[jesse]: it's corrupt? It means uh, to me, it's like water returning to the level. You know

431
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:22,480
[jesse]: that these are. These are more fair, and yeah, you're not going to like it because

432
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:26,160
[jesse]: you're losing a big chunk of the advantage that you had baked into the system for the

433
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:31,040
[jesse]: last twenty years, but that in of itself does not make them unconstitutional in these

434
00:22:31,120 --> 00:22:34,800
[jesse]: sorts of things. And and I'm not going to ask you to comment on that to to make a a

435
00:22:34,279 --> 00:22:35,279
[stephen_caruso]: Yeah,

436
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:36,480
[jesse]: call on that, but my question is

437
00:22:34,979 --> 00:22:40,739
[stephen_caruso]: yeahalys,

438
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:39,760
[jesse]: said Nornberg when he was doing his analysis,

439
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:45,520
[jesse]: made it a point to say that these maps still favored the g o P.

440
00:22:46,679 --> 00:22:47,679
[stephen_caruso]: umhu,

441
00:22:47,120 --> 00:22:51,760
[jesse]: Both sets, but on the house maps. What exactly did he mean? Like How exactly did

442
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:53,119
[stephen_caruso]: Yeah,

443
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:53,680
[jesse]: does he justify that?

444
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:53,680
[jesse]: does he justify that?

445
00:22:54,979 --> 00:22:59,059
[stephen_caruso]: So how he meant that? is it? it has to do with Um.

446
00:23:00,499 --> 00:23:05,139
[stephen_caruso]: the I. It's funny It goes back to Daves redistricting, a uh, d r, A becoming

447
00:23:05,479 --> 00:23:06,479
[stephen_caruso]: the the Mbp of this

448
00:23:06,499 --> 00:23:11,059
[stephen_caruso]: redisticting cycle. And and it's funny, because both sides are using Dra to

449
00:23:06,580 --> 00:23:07,580
[jesse]: Yes,

450
00:23:11,219 --> 00:23:15,219
[stephen_caruso]: justify why they say what they say. If you look at d r, and you look at

451
00:23:15,299 --> 00:23:21,219
[stephen_caruso]: these maps, there is, I believe, like a one seat advantage for biting, and

452
00:23:21,299 --> 00:23:25,219
[stephen_caruso]: how the maps are drawn so republican. And then if you also go to just like

453
00:23:25,539 --> 00:23:29,619
[stephen_caruso]: the composite, Uh, which is like this, Dra's way of saying, like, if you

454
00:23:29,699 --> 00:23:32,659
[stephen_caruso]: look at all the statewide election results that we can get our hands on from

455
00:23:32,739 --> 00:23:37,299
[stephen_caruso]: twenty sixteen to twenty twenty, and mash them together. Uh, and and like

456
00:23:37,539 --> 00:23:41,539
[stephen_caruso]: say what they kind of represent what the average of them is for these

457
00:23:41,699 --> 00:23:45,139
[stephen_caruso]: districts, there is a slight democratic advantage on these map by that

458
00:23:45,219 --> 00:23:49,539
[stephen_caruso]: composite, but at the same like like in total districts that are democratic

459
00:23:49,699 --> 00:23:51,859
[stephen_caruso]: leaning, and that lean can go from. You know. like,

460
00:23:53,539 --> 00:23:58,339
[stephen_caruso]: Uh, maybe like half a percent less two. you know, thirty forty percent. If

461
00:23:58,339 --> 00:24:00,499
[stephen_caruso]: you're talking like Center City Philly, maybe more.

462
00:24:01,539 --> 00:24:06,659
[stephen_caruso]: Um, but what? what's been pointed out to me too? Though, Is that like that

463
00:24:06,759 --> 00:24:07,759
[stephen_caruso]: composite

464
00:24:08,579 --> 00:24:13,859
[stephen_caruso]: runs on the idea that the statewide election result was fifty one, forty six

465
00:24:14,579 --> 00:24:17,619
[stephen_caruso]: in like a democra, A fifty one, forty six Democraticquit? Because're

466
00:24:17,699 --> 00:24:22,659
[stephen_caruso]: Democrats have won all but Uh three statewide races in Pennsylvania. Uh, I

467
00:24:22,659 --> 00:24:24,899
[stephen_caruso]: don't know about the Supreme Court, but I don't think the are use them

468
00:24:24,979 --> 00:24:27,859
[stephen_caruso]: anywayway. The point is Democrats have won a lot of statewide races in

469
00:24:27,939 --> 00:24:33,459
[stephen_caruso]: Pennsylvania to twenty sixteen, so they're like composite favors like

470
00:24:34,019 --> 00:24:39,779
[stephen_caruso]: already favors. Democrats, and Democrats win a like slim majority of seats

471
00:24:40,579 --> 00:24:43,939
[stephen_caruso]: under those conditions. So how it's been put to me, is that like? If you

472
00:24:44,019 --> 00:24:48,659
[stephen_caruso]: imagine a fifty fifty election where like the statewide vote for Democrats,

473
00:24:48,799 --> 00:24:49,799
[stephen_caruso]: Republicans is

474
00:24:49,540 --> 00:24:50,540
[jesse]: Mhm, Mhm,

475
00:24:49,859 --> 00:24:53,699
[stephen_caruso]: equal, or you know, like maybe plus one vote, 'cause somebody has to win.

476
00:24:53,939 --> 00:24:57,379
[stephen_caruso]: You know, Um, Republicans will still in that scenario

477
00:24:58,419 --> 00:25:02,579
[stephen_caruso]: have a major like, pick up a majority of seats under this map.

478
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:04,320
[jesse]: because it's you because of geography,

479
00:25:03,299 --> 00:25:08,099
[stephen_caruso]: So itcause because of geography. Yes, and it has a. And it because of

480
00:25:08,179 --> 00:25:12,419
[stephen_caruso]: geography Because of the way I always think about is that like the best

481
00:25:12,819 --> 00:25:16,739
[stephen_caruso]: performing democratic district in Pennsylvania is like literally like ninety

482
00:25:16,899 --> 00:25:21,139
[stephen_caruso]: five percent Democratic. five percent Republican. In parts of Philly, the

483
00:25:21,219 --> 00:25:24,819
[stephen_caruso]: best performing republican districts are maybe eighty twenty.

484
00:25:26,099 --> 00:25:30,019
[stephen_caruso]: like like eighty percent Republican. twenty percent Democratic. Democrats

485
00:25:30,179 --> 00:25:33,619
[stephen_caruso]: are just so much more packed, and we can talk about a lot of reasons. I

486
00:25:33,619 --> 00:25:36,339
[stephen_caruso]: mean, you know, we're gonna have to go into housing discrimination. I mean

487
00:25:36,339 --> 00:25:39,779
[stephen_caruso]: there's always racism. We're talking about America. uh. and and like we're

488
00:25:39,859 --> 00:25:44,019
[stephen_caruso]: t, we could talk about, you know, like just sorting. uh, but like th. the

489
00:25:44,099 --> 00:25:49,379
[stephen_caruso]: fact is how that ends is Democrats are more packed. So unless you draw a

490
00:25:49,459 --> 00:25:50,899
[stephen_caruso]: map, that's a bunch of spaghetti

491
00:25:50,740 --> 00:25:51,740
[jesse]: right right

492
00:25:51,139 --> 00:25:56,499
[stephen_caruso]: strands. You're going to kind of end up with this like geography, just sort

493
00:25:56,579 --> 00:26:00,019
[stephen_caruso]: of determining that Democrats are at a slight disadvantage.

494
00:25:59,860 --> 00:26:00,860
[jesse]: right right?

495
00:26:01,220 --> 00:26:02,220
[jesse]: So so

496
00:26:02,199 --> 00:26:03,199
[stephen_caruso]: so

497
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:06,320
[jesse]: yeah, it's one of those things where you could you know, so that allows you to kind

498
00:26:03,459 --> 00:26:06,819
[stephen_caruso]: so yeah, it's one of those things where you could you know. So that allows

499
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:09,440
[jesse]: of give you the freedom of and make an argument either way. Right. While you know it

500
00:26:06,899 --> 00:26:09,699
[stephen_caruso]: you to country, gives you the freedom of making argument Either way, right

501
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:13,120
[jesse]: should be, it should be more democratic because be less democratic should be whatever

502
00:26:10,259 --> 00:26:13,939
[stephen_caruso]: know, yeah, uh, it should be more democratic because we democratic to be

503
00:26:14,099 --> 00:26:18,099
[stephen_caruso]: whatever, And the what? I if I met? No, No, no, it's F. Like the only other

504
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,400
[jesse]: one of the I'm sorry, Mhm.

505
00:26:18,179 --> 00:26:21,299
[stephen_caruso]: thing I'd bring up too, Is that the one thing I feel really confident on

506
00:26:21,379 --> 00:26:23,779
[stephen_caruso]: saying with this map too, is it does?

507
00:26:25,139 --> 00:26:27,219
[stephen_caruso]: It's weird on a like

508
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:29,760
[jesse]: I think that should just be. It's weird, you just

509
00:26:27,699 --> 00:26:32,259
[stephen_caruso]: If you look at be it's weird. Yeah, no, no, so so like like, like I, I even

510
00:26:32,419 --> 00:26:36,739
[stephen_caruso]: need to pick my words like carefully. Like so it is both a more competitive

511
00:26:36,819 --> 00:26:42,419
[stephen_caruso]: and less competitive map. By that, I mean the actual outcome in the general

512
00:26:42,819 --> 00:26:48,819
[stephen_caruso]: assembly, Like when you look at the body as a whole, it will make the

513
00:26:49,039 --> 00:26:50,039
[stephen_caruso]: margins tighter.

514
00:26:49,860 --> 00:26:50,860
[jesse]: right.

515
00:26:50,579 --> 00:26:54,179
[stephen_caruso]: There are more leany districts. They increase by about fifteen. Sixteen like

516
00:26:54,259 --> 00:26:59,459
[stephen_caruso]: districts. Democrats are pretty much guaranteed to win and then, and and

517
00:26:59,699 --> 00:27:03,539
[stephen_caruso]: Republicans gained like one or two seats by that metric. And it does that by

518
00:27:03,779 --> 00:27:08,099
[stephen_caruso]: reducing the number of competitive districts, So the actual outcome like,

519
00:27:08,259 --> 00:27:11,779
[stephen_caruso]: like the General Assembly, will likely be E, even tighter between

520
00:27:11,939 --> 00:27:15,779
[stephen_caruso]: Republicans and Democrats. Um. And there's no guarantee that Democrats have

521
00:27:15,859 --> 00:27:20,499
[stephen_caruso]: thedvant for like', likely to be a slimmer margin between the two sides, And

522
00:27:21,699 --> 00:27:26,499
[stephen_caruso]: but like, And it does that by reducing the number of actually competit like

523
00:27:26,579 --> 00:27:29,699
[stephen_caruso]: singully competitive districts, like districts that are on a K nightedge,

524
00:27:29,559 --> 00:27:30,559
[stephen_caruso]: like swinging

525
00:27:30,260 --> 00:27:31,260
[jesse]: Mhm.

526
00:27:30,339 --> 00:27:33,459
[stephen_caruso]: districts, I guess is the way to put it like. And and you can look at,

527
00:27:33,859 --> 00:27:37,139
[stephen_caruso]: Excuse me, and you can look at that by. Like you know, A big example of that

528
00:27:37,219 --> 00:27:40,339
[stephen_caruso]: to me is you know, I live in Harrisburg. Uh, you, you live in the West

529
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:41,119
[stephen_caruso]: Shore, right.

530
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:41,680
[jesse]: I'm in Coverly County.

531
00:27:42,899 --> 00:27:46,979
[stephen_caruso]: yeah, so, um, you know, you look at the way Harrisburg was divided. Like,

532
00:27:47,139 --> 00:27:50,739
[stephen_caruso]: like a lot of the Democratic games come from the fact that like Democrats

533
00:27:50,899 --> 00:27:54,099
[stephen_caruso]: right now, just have like one person for say college, one person from

534
00:27:54,179 --> 00:27:57,939
[stephen_caruso]: Harrisburg, one person from York, one person from Lancaster,

535
00:27:57,540 --> 00:27:58,540
[jesse]: Mhm,

536
00:27:58,419 --> 00:28:01,939
[stephen_caruso]: Under this map there would be two democrats. Like Like there, there'd be

537
00:28:02,019 --> 00:28:06,979
[stephen_caruso]: like one good democracy and one like Lean. If not like, I mean like, I'm not

538
00:28:06,979 --> 00:28:10,579
[stephen_caruso]: a handicapper, but like one pretty good seat for Democrats in State college,

539
00:28:10,819 --> 00:28:14,179
[stephen_caruso]: So like they particularly pick up a seat there, it would go from one to

540
00:28:14,339 --> 00:28:18,339
[stephen_caruso]: three pretty solid democratic seats. In Harrisburg, it would go and there's

541
00:28:18,419 --> 00:28:21,539
[stephen_caruso]: still have one seat in York, but in Lancaster, there'd be two pretty solid

542
00:28:21,699 --> 00:28:25,699
[stephen_caruso]: democratic seats and one that's like swinging. So like this is, just say,

543
00:28:25,939 --> 00:28:30,099
[stephen_caruso]: like these cities where you know, depending on how you draw it, maybe you

544
00:28:30,179 --> 00:28:33,299
[stephen_caruso]: just get more competitive districts. Norenberg, also with the idea of more

545
00:28:33,459 --> 00:28:38,259
[stephen_caruso]: minority representation has just drawn these like pretty solidly democratic

546
00:28:38,499 --> 00:28:41,299
[stephen_caruso]: seats, and that where there used to just be one.

547
00:28:41,380 --> 00:28:42,380
[jesse]: Right

548
00:28:42,099 --> 00:28:45,859
[stephen_caruso]: so I guess this is just all to say that like that is. I think also where

549
00:28:45,939 --> 00:28:49,059
[stephen_caruso]: some of the contversy comes from is, I've had a one or two Republicans

550
00:28:49,219 --> 00:28:52,419
[stephen_caruso]: complain to me, too, that their concern is also just the lack of competitive

551
00:28:52,579 --> 00:28:56,339
[stephen_caruso]: districts that the decline ineive districts. Um. I ran the numbers, but I'm

552
00:28:56,419 --> 00:28:59,939
[stephen_caruso]: pretty sure it's like If just going by, like how d r A defines a district

553
00:29:00,099 --> 00:29:03,539
[stephen_caruso]: competitive, which you know we could probably ▁quibble over. But it it goes

554
00:29:03,699 --> 00:29:07,139
[stephen_caruso]: from like forty five competitive seats to like twenty eight competitive

555
00:29:07,299 --> 00:29:10,339
[stephen_caruso]: seads. I'd have to double check my numbers. I shouldn't have used an exact

556
00:29:10,659 --> 00:29:14,339
[stephen_caruso]: number, but it was a. It was a rather significant decline. I hope that makes